The tournament futures have piqued my interest since I discussed my favorite group futures wagers the day before yesterday. With this information, I’ve narrowed it down to a quarterfinalist and a semifinalist as my best bet for making the event’s latter stages.
Let’s get right into my plays, shall we? Check out the 2022 FIFA World Cup odds if you haven’t already.
This is the best bet #1 – Brazil to reach the semifinals (+135, Caesars Sportsbook)
If Brazil has to overcome Germany to get to this point, does that make me nervous? That’s great.
However, the runner-ups of the Copa America tournament have likely the best team in this group of 32. I’ll be stunned if Brazil loses before the quarterfinals, so I’m taking a chance on this market for that reason.
Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland, and Cameroon make up Group G at the World Cup, which kicks off on June 14. (potentially dangerous but lacks a reliable attacking threat). Brazil is by far the most incredible team in this group, having won its group in the last ten World Cups.
Brazil had a +9.2 expected goal differential at the Copa America, including a +2.4 xGDiff in four games against CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers (Argentina, Peru, Ecuador). To put it another way, the xGDiff of this group’s teams from big continental tournaments is the highest.
They’ll face either Portugal or Uruguay if the team finishes second in Group H. Bettors can rest easy knowing that Brazil defeated Uruguay 6-1 in the aggregate in both of their World Cup qualifications matches, provided the odds hold.
Because I believe Brazil will beat Germany in the quarterfinals, I’ll take +135 now and use it as a hedge in the future. For the time being, limit your bets to +125.
(FanDuel) Uruguay to Reach the Quarterfinals (+210)
This wager can be considered a success if Uruguay defeats Portugal in the group stage, and it’s practically out of the question if they face Brazil in the last 16 of the tournaments.
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On the other hand, Portugal needs two more wins in the playoffs before it can qualify for the 2022 World Cup. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Portugal only managed a +0.9 xGDiff in three games against Germany, France, and Belgium despite making it to the last 16 of the European Championship.
At the 2021 Copa America, Uruguay had the third-best xGDiff. Defenders Diego Godin and Jose Maria Gimenez helped keep four of the team’s five opponents under one predicted goal, as reported by fbref.com. That’ll be useful against a Portugal team known for its offensive prowess.